Oscars 2025 Has a New Unexpected Best Picture Frontrunner Now

There’s only several days left until the Oscars ceremony concludes this year’s awards season, and things are about to get quieter ahead of the most important event in Hollywood, despite some major shifts in the Best Picture contenders’ list.

Every nominee’s chances to win big has been going up and down ever since the Golden Globes, the first major award ceremony of the year, announced its favorites back in January, and it’s safe to say nothing has remained the same.

Naturally, some of those movies, initially believed to be very unlikely winners, have now climbed to the top of the list, and one of them has much bigger chances to receive the statuette after the SAG Awards’ results.

Conclave’s SAG Awards Win Brings It Closer to the Oscar Win

Starring Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci in the leading roles, Edward Berger’s political thriller garnered an impressive amount of 8 Oscar nominations, though was never really considered a potential winner, at least compared to seemingly much stronger contenders.

However, Conclave’s situation shifted radically after the movie swept several other award ceremonies, including the most recent SAG Awards where the movie won the statuette for Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.

The category is traditionally considered one of the most important ones at the ceremony, which means Conclave has now received a major boost in its race for the Best Picture win at the upcoming Oscars.

Despite Its Impressive Wins, Conclave Still Has Less Chances than Anora

Even though the SAG Awards helped the movie get higher in the ranking of Best Picture contenders, Conclave might not be a winner after all.

In the current race, the chances are almost equal for Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist and Sean Baker’s Anora, with the latter receiving its own major boost after winning the Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures prize at the Producers Guild of America Awards.

This category, in its turn, has been more precise in predicting the Oscars since its statuette was given to 25 out of 35 Oscars’ Best Picture winners.

At the same time, the winners of the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture category at the SAG Awards have later become the ones to take Best Picture at the Oscars only 15 out of 29 times.

This might suggest that, even with such a major win under its belt, Conclave is still very unlikely to take the main prize at the ceremony set to take place on March 2.