'Welcome back, Jennifer Lawrence': Hunger Games fans are buying Sunrise on the Reaping tickets for one scene
The new prequel is tracking to open at more than double what the last one managed, and the gap between the two campaigns comes down to a few minutes of screen time.
The first presale read on The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping landed on October 28, and it's the kind of number Lionsgate hasn't seen since Katniss was the lead: tracking points to a $100 million-plus domestic opening for the November 20 release, per EmpireCity Box Office data. For scale, the four original films opened at $152 million, $158 million, $122 million and $103 million — and the previous prequel, The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes, opened to $44.6 million in 2023.
On paper, nothing about this movie explains the jump. It's the same author, the same director in Francis Lawrence, the same universe minus its heroine: Joseph Zada plays young Haymitch at the 50th Games, surrounded by Ralph Fiennes, Elle Fanning, Jesse Plemons, Kieran Culkin, Glenn Close, Maya Hawke, McKenna Grace and Lili Taylor. Suzanne Collins' novel sold 1.5 million English-language copies in its first week, the franchise's biggest book debut — strong, but Songbirds & Snakes was a bestseller too, and plenty of people finished that film on streaming.
The October 28 coincidence that isn't one
What Sunrise has that Songbirds & Snakes didn't is sitting in the fine print. The BBFC quietly listed Jennifer Lawrence in the cast when it rated the film, and on October 28 — the very day the presale numbers went out — Lawrence confirmed it herself on Call Her Daddy, along with Josh Hutcherson and Woody Harrelson.
"It was so crazy because it was the same crew… and Josh and Woody. It was so emotional."
— Jennifer Lawrence, on the October 28 Call Her Daddy episode
She went further: "Josh and I didn't walk to the bathroom without our arms around each other." Eleven years after Mockingjay — Part 2, that is the sound of a studio's entire marketing thesis being delivered through a podcast anecdote.
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And the thesis is working on me the same way it's working on everyone else. This is a Haymitch movie that sells like a Katniss movie: the cast list runs eight names deep in prestige actors, the runtime is a franchise-record 2 hours 38 minutes of Zada's story, and the single loudest beat of the whole campaign is a cameo. A film whose predecessor proved the brand alone opens at $44 million is now tracking at over twice that, and the only new variable with a face is Lawrence's.
Songbirds & Snakes opened to $44.6 million with no legacy cast. Sunrise on the Reaping is tracking past $100 million, and the biggest news of its campaign is a returning cameo.
If November 20 lands anywhere near the tracking, the conclusion Lionsgate draws will not be subtle. Collins says she only writes when she has something to say; the box office is about to say that what audiences pay theatrical prices for is the cast they already love. Whatever prequel comes after this one, expect Katniss in it — the studio now has a nine-figure reason to never release one without her again.
Previously we wrote: Back to the Future's director is losing his edit room to Jennifer Lopez